Shaping the Future: Product Performance Evolution Prediction and Manipulation Using Lotka-Volterra Equations
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© Author(s) 2018. During the development planning of a new product, designers and entrepreneurs rely on the prediction of product performance to make business investment and design strategy decisions. Moore's law and the logistic S-curve model help make such predictions but suffer several drawbacks. In this paper, Lotka-Volterra equations are used to describe the interaction between a product (system technology) and the components and elements (component technologies) that are combined to form the product. The equations are simplified by a relationship table and maturation evaluation in a two-step process. The performance data of the system and its components over time are modeled by simplified Lotka-Volterra equations. The methods developed here allow designers, entrepreneurs, and policy makers to predict the performances of a product and its components quantitatively using the simplified Lotka-Volterra equations. The methods also shed light on the extent of performance impact from a specific module (component technology) on a product (system technology), which is valuable for identifying the key features of a product and for making outsourcing decisions. Smartphones are used as an example to demonstrate the two-step simplification process. The Lotka-Volterra model of technology evolution is validated by a case study of passenger airplanes and turbofan aero-engines. The case study shows that the data fitting and predictive performances of Lotka-Volterra equations exceed those of extant models.
author list (cited authors)
Zhang, G., McAdams, D. A., Shankar, V., & Darani, M. M.