Is the actual heat loss factor substantially smaller than you calculated?
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Measured values of the conductive heat loss factor are often significantly smaller than the calculated design value. This study shows that the coheating method generally underestimates the heat loss factor due to neglect of heat gains from thermal masses during the night, while the classic calculation (UAcl = UA0 + MCp) generally overestimates the heat loss factor due to neglect of air infiltration heat recovery.
author list (cited authors)
Liu, M. S., Claridge, D. E., & ASHRAE, ..