An analytical model is developed to predict the annual variation of soil surface temperature from readily available weather data and soil thermal properties. The time variation is approximated by a first harmonic function characterized by an average, an amplitude, and a phase lag. A parametric analysis is presented to determine the effect of various factors such as evaporation, soil absorptivity, and soil convective properties on soil surface temperature. A comparison of the model predictions with experimental data is presented. The comparative analysis indicates that the simplified model predicts soil surface temperatures within ten percent of measured data for five locations.