Chantose, Prasongsit (2011-12). Structural Reliability: Assessing the Condition and Reliability of Casing in Compacting Reservoirs. Master's Thesis.
Casing has a higher risk of failure in a compacting reservoir than in a typical reservoir. Casing fails when reservoir compaction induces compression and shear stresses onto it. They compact as reservoir pressure depletes during production. High compaction reservoirs typically are composed of unconsolidated, overpressured rocks such as chalk, diatomite, and sandstone. Pore pressure depletion increases effective stress, which is the rock matrix stress pushing upward against overburden pressure. Effective stress may exceed rock compressive strength, inducing compaction. Wells in compacting reservoirs risk high failure and deformation rates.
This project introduces the concept of structural reliability to quantify casing failure risks in compacting reservoirs. This research developed probabilistic models for casing capacities using current design methods and a reservoir compaction load using finite-element model simulations. Probabilistic models were used in creating two limit-states functions to predict casing failure: axial yielding and buckling failures. A limit-state function describes the casing condition as the casing experiences a reservoir compaction load. The limit state function is the input in component and system analyses for casing fragility and conditional probability of casing failure. Fragilities can predict casing probability of failure as reservoir pressure is depleting. Sensitivity and importance analyses are also performed to determine the importance of parameters affecting the casing reliability.
Applying the knowledge produced from this research to casing design methods can improve design reliabilities and forecast the risk of casing failure in compacting reservoirs.