Safety effectiveness of converting signalized intersections to roundabouts.
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abstract
Roundabouts may be new builds but often are conversions from existing intersections. When contemplating the later, there is a need to estimate the safety effects of conversions. Several studies have estimated large reductions in crashes and severity; however, these results pertain mainly to conversions from unsignalized intersections. Results for conversions from signalized intersections have been less conclusive or consistent and tend to be somewhat dated. The objective of this study was to fill this void by estimating the safety effectiveness of converting signalized intersections to roundabouts. Several states helped to identify signalized intersections that were converted to roundabouts in the recent past. In total, 28 conversions were identified in the United States. The empirical Bayes (EB) method was employed in an observational before-after study to estimate the safety effects. Data from select states were also used in a cross-sectional analysis to investigate the compatibility of results from cross-sectional and before-after studies. The EB results indicated a safety benefit for converting signalized intersections to roundabouts. There were reductions in both total and injury crashes, with a larger benefit for injury crashes. Further analysis indicated that the safety benefit of roundabouts for total crashes decreased as traffic volumes increase, a result that suggests the need for the development of a crash modification function, a task for which more data would be required. The safety benefit for injury crashes was sustained across all traffic volumes. Both trends were supported by the cross-sectional analysis. Based on the analysis, it appears that roundabouts have the potential to significantly reduce crashes and severity at signalized intersections. A key aspect of the study was the estimation of the standard deviation of the distribution of the CMF in addition to the conventionally estimated standard error of the mean CMF value. For some CMFs, especially the CMFs for total crashes, the standard deviation of the distribution was larger than the standard error of the mean value of the CMF, indicating substantial variation in the treatment effect across sites.
