Forecasting Agricultural Prices Using a Bayesian Composite Approach Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • AbstractForecast users and market analysts need quality forecast information to improve their decision-making abilities. When more than one forecast is available, the analyst can improve forecast accuracy by using a composite forecast. One of several approaches to forming composite forecasts is a Bayesian approach using matrix beta priors. This paper explains the matrix beta approach and applies it to three individual forecasts of U.S. hog prices. The Bayesian composite forecast is evaluated relative to composites made from simple averages, restricted least squares, and an adaptive weighting technique.

published proceedings

  • Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics

author list (cited authors)

  • McIntosh, C. S., & Bessler, D. A.

citation count

  • 9

complete list of authors

  • McIntosh, Christopher S||Bessler, David A

publication date

  • December 1988