Assessment of flooding in urbanized ungauged basins: a case study in the Upper Tiber area, Italy
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The reliability of a procedure for investigation of flooding into an ungauged river reach close to an urban area is investigated. The approach is based on the application of a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for a gauged basin, including the flood-prone area, and that furnishes the inlet flow conditions for a two-dimensional hydraulic model, whose computational domain is the urban area. The flood event, which occurred in October 1998 in the Upper Tiber river basin and caused significant damage in the town of Pieve S. Stefano, was used to test the approach. The built-up area, often inundated, is included in the gauged basin of the Montedoglio dam (275 km2), for which the rainfall-runoff model was adapted and calibrated through three flood events without over-bank flow. With the selected set of parameters, the hydrological model was found reasonably accurate in simulating the discharge hydrograph of the three events, whereas the flood event of October 1998 was simulated poorly, with an error in peak discharge and time to peak of -58% and 20%, respectively. This discrepancy was ascribed to the combined effect of the rainfall spatial variability and a partial obstruction of the bridge located in Pieve S. Stefano. In fact, taking account of the last hypothesis, the hydraulic model reproduced with a fair accuracy the observed flooded urban area. Moreover, incorporating into the hydrological model the flow resulting from a sudden cleaning of the obstruction, which was simulated by a 'shock-capturing' one-dimensional hydraulic model, the discharge hydrograph at the basin outlet was well represented if the rainfall was supposed to have occurred in the region near the main channel. This was simulated by reducing considerably the dynamic parameter, the lag time, of the instantaneous unit hydrograph for each homogeneous element into which the basin is divided. The error in peak discharge and time to peak decreased by a few percent. A sensitivity analysis of both the flooding volume involved in the shock wave and the lag time showed that this latter parameter requires a careful evaluation. Moreover, the analysis of the hydrograph peak prediction due to error in rainfall input showed that the error in peak discharge was lower than that of the same input error quantity. Therefore, the obtained results allowed us to support the hypothesis on the causes which triggered the complex event occurring in October 1998, and pointed out that the proposed procedure can be conveniently adopted for flood risk evaluation in ungauged river basins where a built-up area is located. The need for a more detailed analysis regarding the processes of runoff generation and flood routing is also highlighted. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
