Traffic fatalities, Peltzman's model, and directed graphs. Academic Article

abstract

• We show how statistical methods based on directed graphs may be useful in modeling traffic fatalities by comparing models specified using directed graphs to a model originally developed by Peltzman. The comparison uses Peltzman's original data, as well as up-dated data (and coefficients) through 1993. Out-of-sample forecasts of traffic fatalities from Peltzman's model are compared with those from a model constructed using directed graphs over data for the more recent period. The directed graphs model outperforms Peltzman's model in root mean squared forecast error.

authors

• Bessler, David

published proceedings

• Accid Anal Prev

author list (cited authors)

• Roh, J. W., Bessler, D. A., & Gilbert, R. F.

citation count

• 7

complete list of authors

• Roh, JW||Bessler, DA||Gilbert, RF

publication date

• January 1999

publisher

• Elsevier  Publisher

published in

• Accident Analysis and Prevention  Journal

keywords

• Accidents, Traffic
• Algorithms
• Forecasting
• Humans
• Models, Statistical
• United States

PubMed Central ID

• 10084618

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1016/s0001-4575(98)00044-x

start page

• 55

end page

• 61

volume

• 31

issue

• 1-2

URL

• http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1016%2Fs0001-4575%2898%2900044-x