Characteristics of Climate Forecast Quality: implications for Economic Value to Midwestern Corn Producers Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • Various scenarios for climate forecast quality are applied to corn production in east-central Illinois. A stochastic dynamic programming model is used to obtain the expected value of the various scenarios. Results indicate two possible preferred directions for research. First, increasing forecast quality by decreasing the error between the observed condition and the forecast condition may be preferred to increasing quality by increasing the number of predictions in the correct category. Second, corn producers may prefer research to increase the quality of forecasts for "poorer' climatic conditions over research directed toward increasing the quality of forecasts for "good' conditions. -from Authors

published proceedings

  • Journal of Climate

author list (cited authors)

  • Mjelde, J. W., Peel, D. S., Sonka, S. T., & Lamb, P. J.

citation count

  • 22

complete list of authors

  • Mjelde, James W||Peel, Derrell S||Sonka, Steven T||Lamb, Peter J

publication date

  • November 1993