The predictability of oxygen and its metabolic consequences for fisheries on decadal time scales
This proposal seeks to analyze predictions from the CESM-Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble forecasts for predictability of environmental variables relevant to fish metabolism (temperature, plankton, biomasses, oxygen, and metabolic index) for representative taxa in six LMEs. These LMEs are: Eastern Bering Sea, California Current, NE Atlantic Shelf, SE Atlantic Shelf, Gulf of Mexico, and Pacific Islands. In particular, the proposal will examine the predictability of oxygen and a related metabolic index as limitations on fish. The hypothesis is that demands on metabolic rates due to warming and lower dissolved oxygen will limit fish biomass and thereby potentially affect fishing potential. Projected oxygen decline and expanded low oxygen conditions are not spatially uniform; both temperatures and oxygen availability limit habitat suitability. A metabolic-based index, , the MI, combines oxygen content in the ocean with temperature to infer the metabolic demands for a given organism. MI values below critical levels suggest the environment can no longer support the aerobic demands of the species. There are seven objectives: 1) identify bias and performance; 2) produce hindcasts of MI for key taxa in 6 LMRs; 3) determine predictability of temperature, oxygen and MI for each LMR; 4) estimate predictability of potential catch from forecasts/ hindcasts using FEISTY and chlorophyll CPUE ; 5) identify regions where catch exceeds metabolic capacity; 6) determine conditions for at-risk regions, frequency of occurrence and predictability of occurrence; 7) inform NMFS partners. CPUE will be generated both statistically from ESM output and also by feeding ESM output into FEISTY.