Presidential Electoral Performance as a Source of Presidential Power
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One of the most fertile areas of research in American politics has been that focusing on the vote in presidential elections. Most studies in this area, however, take the presidential vote as the dependent variable. This research carries the analysis further and examines the influence of the presidential vote in a congressional constituency on the support of that constituency's congressman for the President's policies. Using the techniques of causal modeling and path analysis, this article tests for both the direct influence of the presidential vote on presidential support and for its indirect influence through its effect on the party which wins the seat in a congressional district while controlling for the effects of constituency party strength. The basic finding is that presidential electoral performance does influence presidential support, particularly in Democratic presidential years.
American Journal of Political Science
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