Assessing Presidential Support in the House II: Lessons from George Bush Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • This paper uses parameter estimates of a regression model of congressional support of previous administrations to forecast individual members' support for Bush in 1989. The forecast errors reveal whether a member's actual level of support is higher or lower than should be expected given the effects of party, ideology, and public approval of the president. We find that Bush received less support from House members than predicted by the baseline model. The mean forecast error in 1989 was -1.77. Support from Republicans was considerably lower than expected. Liberal Democrats were slightly more supportive than predicted, and conservative Democrats averaged nearly 10 points higher than expected. Furthermore, friendship did not pay off in abnormally high support scores. The average forecast error for those members listed as the president's friends was negative, and the group with particularly close ties was the most undersupportive. And Bush's electoral strength in members' districts is not related to levels of over- or undersupport.

author list (cited authors)

  • Fleisher, R., & Bond, J. R.

citation count

  • 10

publication date

  • May 1992

publisher