Hubbert - 6: Multicyclic Hubbert model shows global conventional gas output peaking in 2019 Academic Article uri icon


  • Natural gas is one of the world's most important energy sources. Its growth has been the fastest of all the fossil fuels in recent years. In just 20 years, global production of natural gas has increased about 1.7 times and the US Energy Information Administration predicts its use to double by 2020. This study shows that the Multicyclic Hubbert model can be used as an effective technique to forecast future production trends. It is an improvement on the original Hubbert model, as the use of two or more production cycles gives a better match to the historical production trends and consequently leads to a better forecast.

author list (cited authors)

  • Imam, A., Startzman, R. A., & Barrufet, M. A.

publication date

  • August 2004