McNulty-Nebel, Alyssa Danielle (2022-07). A Bird's Eye View of COVID-19 During the First 18 Months of a Pandemic in a College City. Doctoral Dissertation.
Thesis
Introduction, the COVID-19 pandemic entering its third year highlights a need for further information on how SARS-CoV-2 impacts communities. This text establishes the burden of disease on different age groups and minorities, identify predictors for disease severity, as well as the effectiveness of contact tracing. Data from the COVID-19 investigations center is implemented in deterministic mathematical modelling to look at the theoretical effects of different levels of vaccination, earlier vaccination, and reporting levels on an epidemiologic curve. Methods used in this study include univariate, bivariate, and backwards stepwise regression run in Stata 16.1/IC. Mathematical modelling uses both R software package EpiEstim and Matlab to run models. Results highlighted black and Hispanic race/ethnicities are minorities who were adversely affected compared to white, non-Hispanic cases. Comorbidities of diabetes, hypertension, and renal disease were found to increase one's odds of severe disease. Most of the transmission occurred in households, and they often tested for the virus prior to receiving public health guidance from contact tracing. Modeling highlighted that earlier vaccination and or higher vaccination rates would have decreased the number of illnesses and the burden on the local healthcare infrastructure. Discussion, policy makers and healthcare providers can use information regarding who is at higher risk of disease by helping make the public more aware of their increased risk if they fall into a high-risk category. Public health professionals may also encourage those who test positive to not pass on guidance but allow their close contacts to be contacted directly. Lastly, any increase in vaccination can avert cases and decrease the load on the healthcare system.
