What are the effects of domestic audiences on militarized crises? By considering the roles of uncertainty together, this dissertation examines how domestic audiences affect leaders' foreign policies. Specifically, the three empirical essays address the following questions: 1) how does uncertainty over dispute outcomes increase or decrease the domestic constraints on leaders' risky conflict behavior?, 2) how does dispute outcome uncertainty lead to more or less risky foreign policies depending on domestic audiences' signaling? and 3) how do domestic audiences motivate leaders to embrace ambiguity within their foreign policies? First, this dissertation explores how the effects of domestic audiences on leaders' risky decisions vary with dispute outcome uncertainty arising from the international power structure. The findings suggest that domestic constraints on leaders' risky policies are more substantial at the high level of dispute outcome uncertainty. Second, this research examines whether leaders' perceived uncertainty about dispute outcomes leads to more or less militarized actions by considering the roles of public support. The findings imply that domestic audiences allow policymakers to adopt risky policies by sending signals supporting their leaders' political survival and policy success. Third, this study examines how domestic audiences lead policymakers to make public threats, particularly ambiguous ones. The findings imply that domestic audiences could encourage ambiguous public threats, thus undermining the credibility of a state's public threats. By considering the impacts of domestic audiences and uncertainty together, this dissertation extends our understanding of leaders' strategic choices in crisis bargaining.
