SHOULD OIL PRICES RECEIVE SO MUCH ATTENTION? AN EVALUATION OF THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OIL PRICES FOR THE US ECONOMY Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy-related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry-level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities. (JEL Q43, E37, C32) 2007 Western Economic Association International.

published proceedings

  • ECONOMIC INQUIRY

author list (cited authors)

  • Bachmeier, L., Li, Q. i., & Liu, D.

citation count

  • 33

complete list of authors

  • Bachmeier, Lance||Li, Qi||Liu, Dandan

publication date

  • January 2008

publisher