Habitat suitability modeling of Aurelia jellyfish (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa) in the Gulf of Mexico suggests distinct species distributions based on tolerance limits Institutional Repository Document

Aurelia is a genus of Scyphozoan jellyfish with cosmopolitan distribution and a propensity to form large aggregations, or blooms. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) coast, blooms of Aurelia have caused problems for human enterprise. Mature Aurelia medusae are observed each season, yet their benthic originators, the polyps, have never been found in nature in the GoM. The absence of information on polyp locations greatly limits our understanding of bloom formation as we are unable to identify bloom origins or study medusae production in situ. To address the lack of knowledge on polyp distribution, suitable settlement, and natural and artificial colonization habitats for two Aurelia species (A. sp. 9 and A. sp. 18) were modeled using a GIS spatial analysis, utilizing previously published experimentally determined species tolerance ranges for temperature and salinity. The results revealed that the GoM coastal waters are suitable for A. sp. 9, but not A. sp. 18, and that water temperature, but not salinity, limits distribution of both species. Also, 94% of GoM artificial reefs and 97% of gas platforms are suitable for A. sp. 9, while only 37% of the reef and 40% of the gas platforms offer suitable habitats for A. sp. 18. Based on the models, A. sp. 18 is an offshore species restricted to the deeper shelf waters of the GoM by summer high water temperatures and future increases in water temperature, such as those expected with climate change, may negatively impact jellyfish populations in the northern GoM.