Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.

author list (cited authors)

  • McCarl, B. A., Musumba, M., Smith, J. B., Kirshen, P., Jones, R., El-Ganzori, A., ... Hynninen, R.

citation count

  • 20

publication date

  • October 2013