Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector

© 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.

McCarl, B. A., Musumba, M., Smith, J. B., Kirshen, P., Jones, R., El-Ganzori, A., ... Hynninen, R.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector Academic Article