After major disaster events, there is regularly a loss of population and increases in amounts of vacant land. Disaster recovery is notoriously uneven spatially, resulting in some neighborhoods lagging behind their neighbors during recovery. For such areas, disaster-induced vacant land can remain vacant many years after a hazard incident, sometimes never to fully recover. The vacant properties and their redevelopment patterns are essential benchmarks for measuring recovery and community resilience. However, few studies have focused on the vacant land redevelopment process empirically after a disaster event occurs. The goal of this study is to identify factors facilitating or constraining the redevelopment of disaster-induced vacant land. The research questions include: (1) What are the differences in characteristics of disaster-induced and pre-existing vacant land and their respective redevelopment patterns? (2) How does the accumulation of vacant land affect redevelopment outcomes? and (3) What are the impacts of buyout programs on redevelopment outcomes? One way to assess the redevelopment of vacant land is to compare systematic variations in redevelopment patterns across groups of neighborhoods and the characteristics of particular land parcels. This was accomplished by incorporating the longitudinal property tax records. Specifically, on Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula in Texas, over 3,000 vacant lots emerged after Hurricane Ike. For the first subsidiary question, this study employed an exploratory data analysis, case-control, and Propensity Score Matching methods to summarize the main characteristics of pre-disaster and disaster-induced vacant lots. Regarding the second and third subsidiary questions, this study employed three statistical models: logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards, and discrete time hazard models to capture the negative externalities of nearby vacant lots. Results from this research could be used to find efficient ways of recognizing and managing properties and areas prone to redevelopment unevenness. The results showed that the negative externalities from vacant lots significantly discouraged land development within a 250-foot distance. Therefore, expediting redevelopment of both pre-disaster and post-disaster vacant lots is crucial to curtailing contagious negative externalities that will continuously interrupt redevelopment efforts. Planners and policymakers should make a concentrated effort to resolve long-existing vacant lots before and after a disaster event.
