A four-parameter change-point model for predicting energy consumption in commeroial buildings

This paper develops a four-parameter change-point model of energy consumption as a function of dry-bulb temperature, along with accompanying error diagnostics for the models parameters. The model is a generalization of the widely used threeparameter, or variable-base degree-day method. The model is applied to data from a case study grocery store, is compared to the three-parameter PRISM CO model of the store data, and is shown to provide a statistically better fit to consumption data below about 15C. This model appears to be useful for diagnosing unexpected energy use in some buildings and should be useful for determining retrofit energy savings from monitored pre-retrofit and post-retrofit data for the class of buildings whose pre-retrofit consumption is fit by a four-parameter linear change-point model. 1992 by ASME.

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