The Effect of H1N1 (Swine Flu) Media Coverage on Agricultural Commodity Markets

abstract

• The authors estimate the market impact of media coverage related to the name "swine flu," relabeled subsequently as "2009 H1N1 flu," on the future prices of lean hogs, live cattle, corn, and soybeans. They then quantified the revenue loss, employing the subset vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the media coverage was associated with a significant and temporary negative impact on the futures prices of lean hogs, but with little impact on the other futures prices. The impact persisted for about four months, yielding an April-December 2009 market revenue loss of about $200 million (about 2.51 percent). The Author(s) 2011. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. All rights reserved.

authors

• Bessler, David
• Mccarl, Bruce

published proceedings

• APPLIED ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES AND POLICY

author list (cited authors)

• Attavanich, W., McCarl, B. A., & Bessler, D.

citation count

• 28

complete list of authors

• Attavanich, Witsanu||McCarl, Bruce A||Bessler, David

publication date

• June 2011

publisher

• Wiley  Publisher

published in

• Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy  Journal

keywords

• 2009 H1n1 Flu
• Agricultural Commodity Markets
• Futures Markets
• Media Coverage
• Price Analysis
• Risk Communication
• Subset Vector Autoregression
• Swine Flu

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1093/aepp/ppr008

start page

• 241

end page

• 259

volume

• 33

issue

• 2

URL

• http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppr008