VALUING THE LEAD TIME OF PERIODIC FORECASTS IN DYNAMIC PRODUCTION SYSTEMS Academic Article

abstract

• The question addressed is, how does the value of climate forecasts change as a function of when they are received? This value is highly sensitive to the expectations of the decision maker at the beginning of the planning horizon. A procedure is developed which allows a decision maker to anticipate the issuance of forecasts in a dynamic programming framework. This procedure is contrasted with a previous methodology in which the decision maker was unaware that a climate forecast would be issued until the forecast was received. Results show that using the 'unaware' methodology may overstate the value of receiving forecasts earlier. 1993.

authors

• Mjelde, James

published proceedings

• AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

author list (cited authors)

• MJELDE, J. W., & DIXON, B. L.

citation count

• 10

complete list of authors

• MJELDE, JW||DIXON, BL

publication date

• January 1993

publisher

• Elsevier  Publisher

published in

• Agricultural Systems  Journal

keywords

• 30 Agricultural, Veterinary And Food Sciences
• 41 Environmental Sciences
• Basic Behavioral And Social Science
• Behavioral And Social Science

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1016/0308-521X(93)90067-C

start page

• 41

end page

• 55

volume

• 42

issue

• 1-2

URL

• http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0308-521x(93)90067-c