Martinez Palomares, Jorge Carlos (2019-08). The Impact of the Mexican Government's Budget for Crime and Violence Prevention Programs on Intentional Homicides. Master's Thesis. Thesis uri icon

abstract

  • In 2013, the administration of President Enrique Pe?a Nieto launched the National Crime and Violence Prevention fund (PRONAPRED). From 2013 to 2016, Mexico designated around $771,145,021 dollars for crime prevention programs; later in 2017 no money where designated for this purpose. At the end of the Enrique Pe?a Nieto administration, in 2018, the program was relaunched, but the new budget was about 10 times less. Mass media and academics have heavily criticized the efficiency of the Fund operations and money allocation for crime prevention. The present study is designed to implement quantitative analysis for identifying the impact of the PRONAPRED fund in the intentional total homicides in Mexico. By using a fixed effect estimation for panel data, and controlling for several school variables (elementary, middle and high school), as well as an economic variable, such as the total number of new retail stores opened (used as a proxy variable for economic flow in the areas of interest). We found that the dummy variable for PRONAPRED is significant in each estimation. In other words, the PRONAPRED coefficient shows that municipalities that have received program funding have lower homicide rates as opposed to those not included in the program. Although political shocks, economic crisis and funding for fighting crime directly can be key factors affecting the crime rates, according with the data collected for this study, the PRONAPRED fund has contributed in reducing intentional homicides in Mexico.
  • In 2013, the administration of President Enrique Pe?a Nieto launched the National Crime and Violence Prevention fund (PRONAPRED). From 2013 to 2016, Mexico designated around $771,145,021 dollars for crime prevention programs; later in 2017 no money where designated for this purpose. At the end of the Enrique Pe?a Nieto administration, in 2018, the program was relaunched, but the new budget was about 10 times less. Mass media and academics have heavily criticized the efficiency of the Fund operations and money allocation for crime prevention.
    The present study is designed to implement quantitative analysis for identifying the impact of the PRONAPRED fund in the intentional total homicides in Mexico. By using a fixed effect estimation for panel data, and controlling for several school variables (elementary, middle and high school), as well as an economic variable, such as the total number of new retail stores opened (used as a proxy variable for economic flow in the areas of interest). We found that the dummy variable for PRONAPRED is significant in each estimation. In other words, the PRONAPRED coefficient shows that municipalities that have received program funding have lower homicide rates as opposed to those not included in the program. Although political shocks, economic crisis and funding for fighting crime directly can be key factors affecting the crime rates, according with the data collected for this study, the PRONAPRED fund has contributed in reducing intentional homicides in Mexico.

publication date

  • August 2019