Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers Academic Article uri icon


  • AbstractUsing a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 19982006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 198696 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.

published proceedings

  • Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics

altmetric score

  • 3

author list (cited authors)

  • Ray, D. E., Richardson, J. W., De La Torre Ugarte, D. G., & Tiller, K. H.

citation count

  • 21

complete list of authors

  • Ray, Daryll E||Richardson, James W||De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G||Tiller, Kelly H

publication date

  • July 1998