Precipitation trends analysis by Mann-Kendall test: a case study of Paraba, Brazil Academic Article uri icon


  • Abstract This work aimed to select semivariogram models to estimate trends in monthly precipitation in Paraiba State-Brazil using ordinary kriging. The methodology involves the application of geostatistical interpolation of precipitation records of 51 years from 69 rainfall stations across the state. Analysis of semivariograms showed that specific months had a strong spatial dependence (Index of Spatial Dependence - IDE < 25%). The trends were subjected to the following models: circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, K-Bessel and tetraspherical. The best fit models were selected by cross-validation and Error Comparison Index (ECI). Each data set (month) had a particular spatial dependence structure, which made it necessary to define specific models of semivariogram in order to enhance the adjustment of the experimental semivariogram. Besides, the monthly trend map was plotted to justify the chosen models.

published proceedings

  • Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia

author list (cited authors)

  • Xavier, S., da Silva Jale, J., Stosic, T., dos Santos, C., & Singh, V. P.

citation count

  • 3

complete list of authors

  • Xavier, Sílvio Fernando Alves||da Silva Jale, Jader||Stosic, Tatijana||dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa||Singh, Vijay P

publication date

  • June 2020