Analysis of the Frequency and Severity of Rear-End Crashes in Work Zones
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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify the factors that influence the frequency and severity of rear-end crashes in work zones because rear-end crashes represent a significant proportion of crashes that occur in work zones. METHODS: Truncated count data models were developed to identify influencing factors on the frequency of read-end crashes in work zones and ordered probit models were developed to evaluate influencing factors on the severity of rear-end crashes in work zones. RESULTS: Most of the variables identified in this study for these 2 models were significant at the 95 percent level. The statistics for models indicate that the 2 developed models are appropriate compared to alternative models. CONCLUSIONS: Major findings related to the frequency of rear-end crashes include the following: (1) work zones for capacity and pavement improvements have the highest frequency compared to other types of work zones; (2) work zones controlled by flaggers are associated with more rear-end crashes compared to those controlled by arrow boards; and (3) work zones with alternating one-way traffic tended to have more rear-end crashes compared to those with lane shifts. Major findings related to the severity of the rear-end crashes include the following: (1) rear-end crashes associated with alcohol, night, pedestrians, and roadway defects are more severe, and those associated with careless backing, stalled vehicles, slippery roadways, and misunderstanding flagging signals are less severe; (2) truck involvement and a large number of vehicles in a crash are both associated with increased severity, and (3) rear-end crashes that happened in work zones for bridge, capacity, and pavement are likely to be more severe than others.
author list (cited authors)
Qi, Y. i., Srinivasan, R., Teng, H., & Baker, R.