Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model Academic Article uri icon


  • Using advanced methods of directed acyclic graphs with Bernanke structural vector autoregression models, this article extends recent econometric research on quarterly U.S. markets for wheat and wheat-based value-added products downstream. Analyses of impulse response simulations and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these quarterly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest that movements in wheat and downstream wheat-based markets strongly influence each other, although most of these effects occur at the longer-run horizons beyond a single crop cycle.

published proceedings

  • Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics

author list (cited authors)

  • Babula, R. A., Bessler, D. A., & Payne, W. S.

citation count

  • 8

complete list of authors

  • Babula, Ronald A||Bessler, David A||Payne, Warren S

publication date

  • April 2004