A high-resolution Asia-Pacific regional coupled prediction system with dynamically downscaling coupled data assimilation.
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abstract
A regional coupled prediction system for the Asia-Pacific (AP-RCP) (38E-180, 20S-60N) area has been established. The AP-RCP system consists of WRF-ROMS (Weather Research and Forecast, and Regional Ocean Model System) coupled models combined with local observational information through dynamically downscaling coupled data assimilation (CDA). The system generates 18-day forecasts for the atmosphere and ocean environment on a daily quasi-operational schedule at Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao) (QNLM), consisting of 2 different-resolution coupled models: 27km WRF coupled with 9km ROMS, 9km WRF coupled with 3km ROMS, while a version of 3km WRF coupled with 3km ROMS is in a test mode. This study is a first step to evaluate the impact of high-resolution coupled model with dynamically downscaling CDA on the extended-range predictions, focusing on forecasts of typhoon onset, improved precipitation and typhoon intensity forecasts as well as simulation of the Kuroshio current variability associated with mesoscale oceanic activities. The results show that for realizing the extended-range predictability of atmospheric and oceanic environment characterized by statistics of mesoscale activities, a fine resolution coupled model resolving local mesoscale phenomena with balanced and coherent coupled initialization is a necessary first step. The next challenges include improving the planetary boundary physics and the representation of air-sea and air-land interactions to enable the model to resolve kilometer or sub-kilometer processes.
