In this paper, we show that end-host based congestion prediction is more accurate than previously characterized. However, it may not be possible to entirely eliminate the uncertainties in congestion prediction. To address these uncertainties, we propose Probabilistic Early Response TCP (PERT). PERT emulates the behavior of AQM/ECN, in the congestion response function of end-hosts. We present fluid-flow analysis of PERT/RED and PERT/PI, versions of PERT that emulate router-based RED and PI controllers. Our analysis shows that PERT/RED has better stability behavior than router-based RED. We also present results from ns-2 simulations to show the practical feasibility of PERT. The scheme presented here is general and can be used for emulating other AQM algorithms.