Power System Reliability Modeling with Aging Using Thinning Algorithm
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abstract
Renewal process has been frequently employed as a mathematical model of components in power system reliability analysis. However, some of the components may enter an aging stage and this paper illustrates the effects of aging in reliability modeling. To implement the history of working and failure of system, Stochastic Point Process modeling based on Sequential Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. In the proposed method, the concept of thinning is used for Non-homogeneous Poisson Process characterization of lifetime of aging components. This simulation technique is applied to the Single Area IEEE RTS and the results are compared. 2009 IEEE.