THE GEOGRAPHIC-DISTRIBUTION OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN THE UNITED-STATES - A SPATIAL TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
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This paper presents estimates of the time series and spatial pattern of unemployment rate fluctuations in the U.S. over the period 1977.I-1983.IV. Spatial and time series autocorrelations over a regular lattice are estimated using both simultaneous (SAR) and conditional (CAR) autoregressive models of spatial series. The empirical results indicate that a temporary unemployment rate shock has a significant effect on unemployment rates in adjacent areas contemporaneously, but virtually no impact on neighboring unemployment rates after six quarters. A permanent change in an area's unemployment rate has a strong and persistent impact on unemployment rates in labor markets within 250 miles of the initial shock. 1987.