THE GEOGRAPHIC-DISTRIBUTION OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN THE UNITED-STATES - A SPATIAL TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • This paper presents estimates of the time series and spatial pattern of unemployment rate fluctuations in the U.S. over the period 1977.I-1983.IV. Spatial and time series autocorrelations over a regular lattice are estimated using both simultaneous (SAR) and conditional (CAR) autoregressive models of spatial series. The empirical results indicate that a temporary unemployment rate shock has a significant effect on unemployment rates in adjacent areas contemporaneously, but virtually no impact on neighboring unemployment rates after six quarters. A permanent change in an area's unemployment rate has a strong and persistent impact on unemployment rates in labor markets within 250 miles of the initial shock. 1987.

published proceedings

  • JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS

author list (cited authors)

  • BRONARS, S. G., & JANSEN, D. W.

citation count

  • 29

complete list of authors

  • BRONARS, SG||JANSEN, DW

publication date

  • January 1, 1987 11:11 AM