OPTIMAL REAL-TIME DETECTION OF A DRIFTING BROWNIAN COORDINATE Academic Article

abstract

• Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in three dimensions, whose two spatial coordinates are standard Brownian motions with zero drift, and the remaining (unknown) spatial coordinate is a standard Brownian motion with a non-zero drift. Given that the position of the Brownian particle is being observed in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, which spatial coordinate has the non-zero drift. We solve this problem in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probabilities of the non-zero drift being in any of the three spatial coordinates, when the passage of time is penalised linearly. Finding the exact solution to the problem in three dimensions, including a rigorous treatment of its non-monotone optimal stopping boundaries, is the main contribution of the present paper. To our knowledge this is the first time that such a problem has been solved in the literature.

authors

• Zhou, Quan

published proceedings

• ANNALS OF APPLIED PROBABILITY

author list (cited authors)

• Ernst, P. A., Peskir, G., & Zhou, Q.

citation count

• 4

complete list of authors

• Ernst, PA||Peskir, G||Zhou, Q

publication date

• June 2020

publisher

• Institute of Mathematical Statistics  Publisher

published in

• Annals of Applied Probability  Journal

keywords

• Brownian Motion
• Elliptic Partial Differential Equation
• Free-boundary Problem
• Nonlinear Fredholm Integral Equation
• Nonmonotone Boundary
• Optimal Detection
• Optimal Stopping
• Sequential Testing
• Smooth Fit
• The Change-of-variable Formula With Local Time On Surfaces

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1214/19-AAP1522

start page

• 1032

end page

• 1065

volume

• 30

issue

• 3

URL

• http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/19-aap1522