An ordered probit model approach for developing Markov chain based deterioration model for wastewater infrastructure systems

Deterioration models allow asset managers to evaluate current conditions and to predict future conditions of infrastructure assets. The transition probabilities obtained from deterioration models can be used for Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) and for deterioration-based valuation. This paper describes the development of Markov chain-based deterioration model using the ordered probit model-based approach. The proposed model is applied and evaluated using the condition data of sewer pipes managed by the city of San Diego's Metropolitan Wastewater Department. Advantages and drawbacks of the model are discussed. The paper concludes that in order to gain greater accuracy in deterioration modeling, periodic assessment of the assets with more rigorous data types is desirable.

An ordered probit model approach for developing Markov chain based deterioration model for wastewater infrastructure systems Conference Paper