Calibration improves uncertainty estimation through the reservoir life cycle
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2003, Offshore Technology Conference In this paper we describe a calibration process to improve estimation of uncertainties associated with reservoir and economic performance predictions. The need for such a calibration process arises from our observation that, despite recent advances in uncertainty quantification, we continue to underestimate the uncertainties associated with petroleum asset management. Calibration of uncertainty estimates can be achieved through a continuous process of data acquisition, model calibration, model prediction, economic forecasting, and uncertainty assessment, which is similar to the process employed in weather forecasting. Improved ability to estimate uncertainty should result in better investment decision making and, ultimately, increased profitability.
