Predicting Aquatic Development and Mortality Rates of Aedes Aegypti
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AbstractMosquito-borne pathogens continue to be a significant burden within human populations, with Aedes aegypti continuing to spread dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus throughout the world. Using data from a previously conducted study, a linear regression model was constructed to predict the aquatic development rates based on the average temperature, temperature fluctuation range, and larval density. Additional experiments were conducted with different parameters of average temperature and larval density to validate the model. Using a paired t-test, the model predictions were compared to experimental data and showed that the prediction models were not significantly different for average pupation rate, adult emergence rate, and juvenile mortality rate. The models developed will be useful for modeling and estimating the number of Aedes aegypti in the environment under different temperature, diurnal temperature variations, and larval densities.Author SummaryUsing experimental data from experiments conducted on Aedes aegypti, we formulated regression models to predict pupation, adult emergence, and juvenile mortality rates based on average temperature, temperature fluctuation range, and larval density. The prediction models produced were shown to account for high levels of variation within the data. Validation was performed by comparing omitted data sets to the predictions generated by our models. Our results show that the models produce results that are not significantly different from the experimental results and are capable of predicting aquatic development rates of Ae. aegypti.
