FARM PROGRAM IMPACTS ON AN EXHAUSTIBLE GROUNDWATER SUPPLY - AN ANALYSIS OF THE TEXAS SOUTHERN HIGH-PLAINS
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Stochastically simulated crop yields were combined with random correlated crop prices to provide input into a recursive quadratic programming model to evaluate optimal irrigated crop selection and associated rates of groundwater withdrawals. Three farm program scenarios were evaluated in two areas of the Southern High Plains. Participation in the current farm program increased net returns and groundwater extraction rates above nonparticipation. Discounted net returns were projected to decline across all farm program scenarios. Risk averse preferences in crop mix decisions decreased cumulative groundwater extraction rates through reduced irrigated acres but had higher per acre application rates compared with the risk neutral case. Copyright 1990 by the American Geophysical Union.