A timeseries analysis of Zimbabwe's corn sales to the Grain Marketing Board

abstract

• This article considers methods of cointegration testing to construct a model of Zimbabwe's corn sector. Corn production, sales of corn to the government, the price of corn, and price of beef are linked together in one long-run equilibrium (cointegrating) relation. Only the price of beef is not weakly exogenous to perturbations in this relation. That is to say, when these variables are out of long-run equilibrium, it is through subsequent changes in the price of beef that equilibrium is restored. The other variables do not respond to a long-run disequilibrium. Short-run forecasts from this model are compared with expert opinion forecasts made by the government's marketing board. Possibilities for improvement in long-run forecasting and planning are discussed.

authors

• Bessler, David

published proceedings

• Development Southern Africa

author list (cited authors)

• Makaudze, E., Bessler, D. A., & Fuller, S. W.

citation count

• 0

complete list of authors

• Makaudze, Ephias||Bessler, David A||Fuller, Stephen W

publication date

• September 1998

publisher

• Taylor & Francis  Publisher

published in

• Development Southern Africa  Journal

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1080/03768359808440022

start page

• 413

end page

• 427

volume

• 15

issue

• 3

URL

• http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03768359808440022