ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS, THE EXPONENTIALLY WEIGHTED FORECAST, AND OPTIMAL STATISTICAL PREDICTORS - A REVISIT uri icon

abstract

  • Relationships between adaptive expectations, the exponentially weighted moving average, and optimal univariate statistical predictors are reviewed. Shows that the behavioural-based adaptive expectations are a subclass of both the exponentially weighted moving average and the ARIMA model. The applicability of the adaptive expectations model to 26 empirical price and quantity series is investigated. Numerous price series, while exhibiting the general form of the adaptive expectations did not have a coefficient of expectations within the originally hypothesized range. The behavior consistent with the model underlying these price series would be trend extrapolation rather than averaging.-from Author

published proceedings

  • AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH

author list (cited authors)

  • BESSLER, D. A.

complete list of authors

  • BESSLER, DA

publication date

  • January 1982