Spatio-Temporal Meme Prediction: Learning What Hashtags Will Be Popular Where
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abstract
In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting what online memes will be popular in what locations. Specifically, we develop data-driven approaches building on the global footprint of 755 million geo-tagged hashtags spread via Twitter. Our proposed methods model the geo-spatial propagation of online information spread to identify which hashtags will become popular in specific locations. Concretely, we develop a novel reinforcement learning approach that incrementally updates the best geo-spatial model. In experiments, we find that the proposed method outperforms alternative linear regression based methods. Copyright 2013 ACM.
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Proceedings of the 22nd ACM international conference on Conference on information & knowledge management - CIKM '13