Deriving Link Travel-Time Distributions via Stochastic Speed Processes

We derive an analytical expression for the cumulative distribution function of travel time for a vehicle traversing a freeway link of arbitrary length. The vehicle's speed is assumed to be modulated by a random environment that can be modeled as a stochastic process. We first present a partial differential equation (PDE) describing the travel time distribution and obtain a solution in terms of Laplace transforms. Next, we present a numerical inversion algorithm to invert the transforms. The technique is demonstrated on two example problems. Numerical results indicate great promise for this approach to the link travel-time problem.

Deriving Link Travel-Time Distributions via Stochastic Speed Processes Academic Article