Climate change projections for the Texas High Plains and Rolling Plains Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • 2016, Springer-Verlag Wien. Potential changes in future climate in the Texas Plains region were investigated in the context of agriculture by analyzing three climate model projections under the A2 climate scenario (mediumhigh emission scenario). Spatially downscaled historic (19712000) and future (20412070) climate datasets (rainfall and temperature) were downloaded from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Climate variables predicted by three regional climate models (RCMs) namely the Regional Climate Model Version3Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (RCM3-GFDL), Regional Climate Model Version3Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (RCM3-CGCM3), and Canadian Regional Climate ModelCommunity Climate System Model (CRCM-CCSM) were evaluated in this study. Gaussian and Gamma distribution mapping techniques were employed to remove the bias in temperature and rainfall data, respectively. Both the minimum and maximum temperatures across the study region in the future showed an upward trend, with the temperatures increasing in the range of 1.9 to 2.9 C and 2.0 to 3.2C, respectively. All three climate models predicted a decline in rainfall within a range of 30 to 127mm in majority of counties across the study region. In addition, they predicted an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events in the future. The frost-free season as predicted by the three models showed an increase by 2.63.4weeks across the region, and the number of frost days declined by 17.9 to 30%. Overall, these projections indicate considerable changes to the climate in the Texas Plains region in the future, and these changes could potentially impact agriculture in this region.

published proceedings

  • Theoretical and Applied Climatology

author list (cited authors)

  • Modala, N. R., Ale, S., Goldberg, D. W., Olivares, M., Munster, C. L., Rajan, N., & Feagin, R. A.

complete list of authors

  • Modala, Naga Raghuveer||Ale, Srinivasulu||Goldberg, Daniel W||Olivares, Miriam||Munster, Clyde L||Rajan, Nithya||Feagin, Rusty A

publication date

  • January 1, 2017 11:11 AM