Rainfall estimation for pavement analysis and design
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An integrated model that is being developed under contract to the FHWA combines three different completed environmental effects models: the CMS Model, CRREL Model, and the TAMU ID Model. It will be a comprehensive model that predicts the effects of air temperature, sunshine percentage, wind speed, rainfall, frost, and thawing actions on the performance of pavement. In the course of development, stochastic processes and random methods are employed to analyze past climatological data, and to estimate and predict the effects of the environment on the performance of pavement with specified confidence levels. This paper describes a computerized method that has been developed to generate simulated rainfall patterns for use in pavement analysis and design. The paper presents the method used to simulate the rainfall patterns; shows how the United States is divided into nine climatic regions and which cities have been selected as representative of those regions; and gives four examples of both the required input data and the resulting simulated rainfall patterns for a 95 percent confidence level.
