Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics. Academic Article uri icon


  • We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.

published proceedings

  • Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys

author list (cited authors)

  • Azaele, S., Maritan, A., Bertuzzo, E., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., & Rinaldo, A.

citation count

  • 23

complete list of authors

  • Azaele, Sandro||Maritan, Amos||Bertuzzo, Enrico||Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio||Rinaldo, Andrea

publication date

  • May 2010