Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics.
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We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys
author list (cited authors)
Azaele, S., Maritan, A., Bertuzzo, E., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., & Rinaldo, A.
complete list of authors
Azaele, Sandro||Maritan, Amos||Bertuzzo, Enrico||Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio||Rinaldo, Andrea