Uncertainty quantification of an Aviation Environmental Toolsuite
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This paper describes uncertainty quantification (UQ) of a complex system computational tool that supports policy-making for aviation environmental impact. The paper presents the methods needed to create a tool that is "UQ-enabled" with a particular focus on how to manage the complexity of long run times and massive input/output datasets. These methods include a process to quantify parameter uncertainties via data, documentation and expert opinion, creating certified surrogate models to accelerate run-times while maintaining confidence in results, and executing a range of mathematical UQ techniques such as uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis. The results and discussion address aircraft performance, aircraft noise, and aircraft emissions modeling. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
author list (cited authors)
Allaire, D., Noel, G., Willcox, K., & Cointin, R.