Stochastic streamflow sequences for reservoir operation and design
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abstract
A stochastic streamflow model is adapted for risk methodology in the operation and design of reservoirs. The model is based upon the representation of the flood series as a Poisson counting process. From this model, probability distributions of maximum peak flows, durations, and interarrival times can be obtained. With these distributions known, the distribution of flood volumes can be obtained using a triangular hydrograph approximation. Using these distribution functions, risk evaluation can be performed which will aid the reservoir operator in making important real time decisions. The model can also be used in design situations.
