LONG-RANGE PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
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A novel approach is proposed for the optimization of resource acquisitions, production profiles, capacity expansions and/or capital investments in long range planning models under uncertainty. Demands and prices of chemicals together with process availabilities/capacities are considered to vary following forecasted distributional forms. A two-stage stochastic programming formulation is developed to determine an optimal plan including capacity expansion options that maximize an expected profit. The main feature of the proposed approach is that plan feasibility and economic optimality are simultaneously performed; the decomposition based approach is applicable to both linear and convex nonlinear planning models involving uncertainty described by arbitrary probability distribution functions; it also features a special, highly distributed, structure that can be further exploited.