Forecasting daily reference evapotranspiration using the Blaney-Criddle model and temperature forecasts
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2015 Taylor & Francis. Accurate daily reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) forecast is essential for real-time irrigation scheduling. An attempt was made to forecast ET o using the Blaney-Criddle (BC) model and temperature forecasts in this study. Daily meteorological data for the period 2000-2014 at five stations in East China were collected to calibrate and validate the BC model against the FAO56 Penman-Monteith (FAO56-PM) model. Temperature forecasts up to 7 days lead time for 2012-2014 were input to the calibrated BC model to forecast ET o . It is found that the performance of the BC model for ET o forecast is further improved at all stations after monthly calibration. Average accuracy of forecasted ET o (error within 1.5 mm d 1 ) ranged from 82.7% to 89.3%, average values of mean absolute error (MAE) varied between 0.73 and 0.82 mm d 1 , average values of root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 0.95 to 1.08 mm d 1 , and average values of the correlation coefficient (R) and concordance index (d) were more than 0.75 and 0.89, respectively. Furthermore, the error in ET o forecast caused by error in temperature forecast is acceptable. The encouraging results indicate that the proposed method can be an alternative and effective solution for forecasting daily ET o in East China.
