PROCESSOR, AND CONSUMER PRICE TRANSMISSIONS IN THE WHEAT SECTOR FARMGATE

Time series techniques (vector autoregression) are employed to model a three-price dynamic system of the farmgate, processor, and consumer prices of wheat-related goods. An increase in farmgate wheat price is simulated to determine impacts on processor and consumer prices in the wheat sector. First, the increase in farm wheat price (PF-increase) may be expected to immediately generate processor price increases which are statistically significant for almost a year. Second, the PF-increase is expected to generate wheat-related consumer price increases, which are mostly significant for 22 months. And third, the consumer price increases are expected to be more gradual, less acute, but of longer duration than the processor price rises. -from Authors

FARMGATE, PROCESSOR, AND CONSUMER PRICE TRANSMISSIONS IN THE WHEAT SECTOR