D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic modeling. 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

published proceedings

  • Theory and Decision

author list (cited authors)

  • Bessler, D. A., & Wang, Z.

citation count

  • 10

complete list of authors

  • Bessler, David A||Wang, Zijun

publication date

  • August 2012