D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture

abstract

• The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic modeling. 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

authors

• Bessler, David

published proceedings

• THEORY AND DECISION

author list (cited authors)

• Bessler, D. A., & Wang, Z.

citation count

• 16

complete list of authors

• Bessler, David A||Wang, Zijun

publication date

• August 2012

publisher

• Springer Nature  Publisher

published in

• Theory and Decision: an international journal for multidisciplinary advances in decision sciences  Journal

keywords

• Artificial Intelligence
• Forecast
• Model Choice

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1007/s11238-012-9305-8

start page

• 295

end page

• 314

volume

• 73

issue

• 2

URL

• http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1007%2Fs11238-012-9305-8