D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture
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The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic modeling. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
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Bessler, D. A., & Wang, Z.
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Bessler, David A||Wang, Zijun
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Artificial Intelligence
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Forecast
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Model Choice
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