ANALYTICAL NON-LINEAR PROPAGATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TWO-BODY PROBLEM
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Situational awareness of Earth-orbiting particles such as active satellites and space debris is highly important for future human activities in space. One topic of recent interest is the accurate and consistent representation of an observed object's uncertainty under non-linear dynamics. This paper is a survey of analytical non-linear propagation of uncertainty under two-body dynamics. In particular, we present ways to express, analytically and for all time, the probability distribution function (pdf) over state space, and the mean and variance- covariance matrix of the pdf. We also discuss some numerical examples.